Highlights of Tony's call today.
DC BOTTOM LINE: The earliest we are looking for it is Sun. afternoon, evening, Tuesday of next week and open ended for 6 -7 days. Everybody is frustrated in this process. Come on! Dr. Abadhi. . . incredibly frustrating to be in this game. . . We are waiting for amnesty.
Tony: The new GOI wants to take care of their problems and . . . take care of Maliki their way . . . That is the leverage. . . Critical point. They are shouting at each other this morning, "We want it to be International today!" Iraq says we are fully committed just want to do it our way. Iraq says this will be over Sunday, US is saying Tuesday.
- Question: Why doesn’t Iraq just go ahead and do an RI?
DC in a teetering point of that stage right now. . . in essence getting to where the US does not have much leverage. . . Iraq keeps coming back for more to the US. Most currencies are based on the confidence of the economy, situation. If the 800# gorilla, the US, does not agree with that high a value it’s going to be a . . . difficult. . . Ruple dropped because all issues caused a crisis of confidence. The rest of the world has to believe in it (Iraq value) That’s the main leverage US has right now . . . holding over Iraq’s head.
Some senior guys are saying, if we lose England we are screwed and then we just pissed off one of the upcoming countries in the wordl and pushed ourselves away from them. . . It's Another pressure point that's coming up.
Tony: The whole world knows this is the foundation for the GCR; the US’s role in this and has Exxon, Shell oil in Iraq; and . . . US has more dinar than anybody; US has completely transformed Iraq so far . . . US just wants these guys punished.
IRAQ: Wants to go it alone and let what will be done about Maliki go as a negotiating point. They have contracts and/or agreements signed to do an RI. DC - US knows they will lose if they push this and Iraq can go it alone. (this is the gist of this section on Iraq as reconstructed from memory - I had posted this when connection went down and wiped it out)
- Amnesty Law law has nothing to do with RV but is a negotiating point the US wants. It's only related to Iraq. Parts of it cover Sunni’s wrongly prosecuted or incarcerated; Maliki persecuted/tortured individuals in torture camps and executing people. (released 900 prisoners around Christmas). Thought it was all resolved on Monday night but wrapped it up on Tues. night at 2 am. In actuality it was not solved. Hear a frame work in place to resolve but not expected before Tuesday at the earliest. Amnesty for US soldiers was previously negotiated.
- Kurdistan Issues: HCL,revenue sharing: pipeline placement, oil field recovery all solved until Tuesday night.
- Budget: DONE! Rate change built into the budget
- HCL: DONE!
INTERNATIONAL
- IMF & BIS say the US citizen/public has to be paid.
- EXCHANGING for Other Countries: DC said they will go through their banks foreign currency department. Canada will go through RBC exchange centers.
- FOREX: not show for 10-15 days. Tony expects it to shoot up.
UNITED STATES:
- Taxes: DC was told again this morning it will be treated as long and short term capital gains. Indicated we would not really know till it actually happens.
- Rates:
- Groups: Some of the people who took contract rate ahead of time had tax agreements specificed. Some of those folks are paying taxes and some are tax free
- Roll – Out Plan:
Q and A:
- Q - DINAR RISING TO $7? Tony: RI comes out and 10 days later rate changes and people buying drives it up to $6 – 7 or Dr. Shabibi raises it?
DC: The last two options are most likely. Dr. Shabibi would like to get it cranked up to $6 – $7 quickly. He could do that by creating a floor. He is extremely adept and deserves Nobel prize in economics. Tony: All hedge funds and corporations will get it.
- Caller: refer Mnt Goat saying the RV is tied to National Reconciliation and ISX reopening?
DC: MU National Reconciliation meeting was last week, another one on this last coming Sunday. I think we are done with it. ISX opening on the 11th. ISX is only a stock market. Think it’s a nice indicator .l . . just another point people are watching for.
Tony: ISX January 11th - It’s a great date to say we can look for it by then.
LOOKING BACKWARDS:
Tony mentioned they had heard last July it would not happen till January. The guys ran through the recent history of how we got here today. It took the first 30 minutes of the call. In a nutshell Tony explained “negotiating 101” again.
Tony’s Negotiating 101: Information is piece mealed out. Each time they are given both minor and major issues to do, but not enough to overload the GOI. They probably gave Maliki the same list they gave Dr. Abadhi. Nothing happened during Maliki’s term but Dr. Abadhi has accomplished many years worth in months. That just egged the US on to give him more which explains the ball continuously moving.
DC: Well over 100 times, (repeated several times) over the last year this thing was ready to go . . . Sometimes it was within 3 minutes. . . and then they would move the goal posts . . . get so bloody close every time.
So we get to mid Dec. when all involved parties say “uncle, it’s enough.” US hands list of items it wants completed to an independent third party and agrees to stop putting up blocks and moving the goal post. It involved items related to the budget, revenue sharing and other tweaks, which pipeline it goes on, a lot of details that needed to be fleshed out, anti-corruption, security, ISIL, political reunification issues. They could’ve been solved later but US kept using as reason to delay.
Iraq’s reaction is “We can’t live by this list.” DC said the big hangups were budgetary actions related to oil revenues cuz this meant billions.” Three major items to be solved week before Christmas: Kurdistan revenue sharing: pipeline placement, oil field recovery, parts of an amnesty law: covers Sunni’s wrongly prosecuted or incarcerated; Maliki persecuted/tortured individuals (released 900 prisoners around Christmas).
From what DC said today it’s now down to mostly the US telling Iraq how to handle Maliki that is the bone of contention. US wants him punished.
DC: “Nobody knows what’s next. Now down to critical point, because this is so extreme.”
CLOSING STATEMENTS:
DC: . . . know we are all extremely frustrated . . . know Iraq desperately wants to get this done. . . by Sunday. US believes it will be Tues or beyond. . . . everybody has such incredible fatigue it’s helping solve a lot of angst. That’s where we are sitting at and will keep you updated. .
PAM: Try and keep a positive attitude. It’s worth waiting for. We’re in it to win it.
RAY: Enjoy fantabulous Friday. Happy New Year!. Enjoy your weekend.
TONY: Hoping it was here for Christmas, New Years.. It is here on both side. Iraq, Parliament demanding it this morning. . . around the world, . . affecting everybody. . . I can’t see this affecting the people it is without it being the last straw. I’m going to enjoy the weekend. . . know we are that much closer to it. If we get update, (etc.) will send out a Tweet. We don’t care who is first, who has the most or best info, we just here to see you get it. Take the info, work it out the best way you can but KNOW this is going to happen!!! Enjoy your day, holiday weekend.
Unabashedly, I quote a lovely lady, even if she is under a bus most of the time. We can get her cleaned up for the exchange -
"We are in it to win it!!! Already Blessed - Pam
